Cause and Effect?

Of course the recent job numbers now reveal that Obama has destroyed the economy (at least according to some conservative voices).    Here is a revealing chart:



This chart shows private sector job growth.  Red is during the last year of the Bush administration and blue is the Obama administration.   The blue line to the far right is May of 2011.   April 15 was when the 2011 budget was finally passed.   The budget that cut spending.  What is the fallacy?   Post hoc ergo propter hoc.  And, let us admit, the budget did not cut all that much spending.  But there is this:

About $8 billion in immediate cuts to domestic programs and foreign aid were offset by nearly equal increases in defense spending

But cuts in government spending are not the only thing the Republicans have managed to do that might influence economic and job growth.

There is the dreaded “uncertainty”.  This concept is a favorite of Republicans when, for example, there is a possibility that the top tax rate might or might not go from 35% to 38% and job creators sit on their money instead of create jobs with it since they do not know what the tax rate will be.  I think that “uncertainty” is bunk, but…

What of the uncertainty of whether the US is going to pay its debt or not?  Ever since the 2011  budget passed, the Republicans have made all kinds of noise that they will let the government go into default if they do not get their way.  Does this not create uncertainty?   I suggest this creates a hell of a lot more uncertainty than the possibility that the top tax rate might go up!

Cause and effect?  Ithink things were going along pretty good there until the Republican house finally started influencing what was happening.

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