Cause and Effect?

Of course the recent job num­bers now reveal that Oba­ma has destroyed the econ­o­my (at least accord­ing to some con­ser­v­a­tive voic­es). Here is a reveal­ing chart:

This chart shows pri­vate sec­tor job growth. Red is dur­ing the last year of the Bush admin­is­tra­tion and blue is the Oba­ma admin­is­tra­tion. The blue line to the far right is May of 2011. April 15 was when the 2011 bud­get was final­ly passed. The bud­get that cut spend­ing. What is the fal­la­cy? Post hoc ergo propter hoc. And, let us admit, the bud­get did not cut all that much spend­ing. But there is this:

About $8 bil­lion in imme­di­ate cuts to domes­tic pro­grams and for­eign aid were off­set by near­ly equal increas­es in defense spending

But cuts in gov­ern­ment spend­ing are not the only thing the Repub­li­cans have man­aged to do that might influ­ence eco­nom­ic and job growth.

There is the dread­ed “uncer­tain­ty”. This con­cept is a favorite of Repub­li­cans when, for exam­ple, there is a pos­si­bil­i­ty that the top tax rate might or might not go from 35% to 38% and job cre­ators sit on their mon­ey instead of cre­ate jobs with it since they do not know what the tax rate will be. I think that “uncer­tain­ty” is bunk, but…

What of the uncer­tain­ty of whether the US is going to pay its debt or not? Ever since the 2011 bud­get passed, the Repub­li­cans have made all kinds of noise that they will let the gov­ern­ment go into default if they do not get their way. Does this not cre­ate uncer­tain­ty? I sug­gest this cre­ates a hell of a lot more uncer­tain­ty than the pos­si­bil­i­ty that the top tax rate might go up!

Cause and effect? Ithink things were going along pret­ty good there until the Repub­li­can house final­ly start­ed influ­enc­ing what was happening.

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